The road less travelled

IN 1888 Bertha Benz, wife of the carmaker Karl, drove 66 miles from one German city to another to prove to the world that the “horseless carriage” was suited to everyday use. Mrs Benz succeeded beyond her wildest dreams.

Modern life is unimaginable without the car. The automobile has powered the growth of cities and steered their sprawl. Its manufacture has created millions of jobs and eased the development of many millions more. In rich countries, 70% of journeys are now by car. More than a billion cars now roll on the world’s roads.

Measured globally, car use will go on rising, for as people in emerging markets get rich, they want the mobility and status that car-ownership offers. But in the rich world the decades-long link between rising incomes and car use has been severed (see article), and miles driven per person have been falling. That is partly because of recession and high oil prices, but the trend pre-dates 2007. Other, longer-term, factors are at work. One is generational: car-ownership is reaching saturation. The current cohort of retirees is the first for whom driving was commonplace, so new generations of vehicle-owners will replace rather than add to existing ones. Young people, meanwhile, are falling out of love with cars. All over the rich world they are getting their licences later, and they use other forms of transport more than the young did a generation ago.

That, like so much else, may be partly a consequence of the internet. Never before has not travelling been so much fun. People who want to socialise can do so virtually, instead of driving round to each other’s houses. Shopping can be done online, instead of buzzing off to the supermarket or the mall: one van delivery can do the work of many individual shoppers in their cars. People who don’t want to go into the office find it increasingly easy to do their work from home.

But government policy also makes a difference. Congested roads, smog and fears about global warming have led many cities to try to change the way people move around. Tokyo has shown that mass-transit systems need not be a poor or dirty option. Portland, which grew with the car, has since the 1980s developed its light rail. London has devoted more space exclusively to buses and cycles; cars pay to enter the centre. Singapore has congestion-pricing too. For the past 30 years Copenhagen has cut the number of parking bays by 3% a year. By contrast, in places where petrol is undertaxed so the motorists are shielded from the costs of the pollution (America) or where urban design has included public transport as an afterthought (Los Angeles), policy has supported the car.

Policy drives change

So even though it will be hard to detect in many parts of American suburbia, car use may well have peaked in the rich world overall. Is that a good thing? Not entirely: governments will lose out on revenues from fuel and car taxes, for instance. But in many other ways it should be a boon. Falling car use should reduce oil-importers’ dependence on volatile foreign governments. It should cut pollution. Cities could become pleasanter places to live in. And, since obesity rates track car use, more people will take up walking and cycling, and fitter people are less depressed and more productive (or so they tell us).

A decline in miles driven per person in the developed world does not spell doom for carmakers. There is plenty of demand for them in the developing world. They may overcome resistance in the rich world by coming up with radically cheaper or greener cars or new vehicles entirely (driverless cars, for instance). But in the short term the falling underlying demand makes the industry’s excess capacity in Europe all the more wasteful; politicians should let them close factories.

Governments in emerging markets, where hundreds of cities are taking shape, should learn from mistakes and successes elsewhere. Policies that encourage people to drive into urban centres—by, for instance, requiring businesses to offer parking spaces for employees and customers—condemn metropolitan areas to heavy car use and congestion. Planning that provides mass transit systems and good pedestrian and cycle ways can make them more efficient. That is happening in some places. China is building rail networks in more than 80 cities. Eighteen Indian cities are developing metro systems. Yet many cities continue to drive themselves round the same bend as in the developed world. Bangkok, Dhaka and Jakarta are building more freeways in response to already clogged ones.

The car will bring freedom and fun to millions in emerging markets, just as it has done in the rich world. But if technology and policy are enabling people to find cheaper and cleaner ways to work and enjoy themselves, that is all to the good.